Community solar installations in the US will top 14 GW DC by 2029 as 7.3 GW DC is expected to be added in existing state markets by that time, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie in partnership with the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA).

The analyst firm projects that the national community solar market will grow at an average rate of 5% a year through 2026 and then contract by 11% on average through 2029, although expanded programme capacity and the establishment of new state markets could drive additional growth beyond 2026. The enactment of proposed legislation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and four additional potential state markets is estimated to lead to at least 17% uplift from the base case. In a bullish forecast scenario, Wood Mackenzie’s five-year outlook for existing markets rises by 21% from the base case, while it declines by 20% under a bearish scenario.

Caitlin Connolly, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said that growth is beginning to slow in existing state markets. “Additionally, the May 2024 decision on California community solar resulted in a significant 14% reduction to Wood Mackenzie’s five-year national outlook. Without a major market entrant like California, long-term community solar growth will largely depend on the enactment of legislation to enable new state markets,” Connolly further commented in an announcement last week.

Wood Mackenzie also said that community solar developers are navigating federal incentives. “The fruits of the Inflation Reduction Act are numerous but difficult to count on. Community solar stakeholders are navigating a steep learning curve while trying to secure tax credit adders,” explained Connelly. Awards from the USD-7-billion Solar for All fund were also announced in April. While final implementation plans are not confirmed, developers hope to use federal funds to expand into new state markets even without official state programmes, the analyst added.

The report forecasts that 3.6 GW DC of community solar will serve low-to-moderate income subscribers by 2029, compared to 829 MW DC as of the first quarter of 2024.

Source: https://renewablesnow.com/news/us-to-add-73-gw-dc-of-community-solar-by-2029-wood-mackenzie-865988/